[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Futures Weaken With Insufficient Confidence, Market Expectations Mostly Bearish

On November 17, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,000-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,050-8,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quotation for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,100-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day. For imported material, the quotation for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,200-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the quotation for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

The off-season continued to weigh on the market, with the ferrochrome market remaining in the doldrums and transactions difficult. End-use demand was notably weak, and sentiment in the stainless steel market was pessimistic. Production cuts and losses prompted steel mills with mediocre purchase willingness to drive down raw material purchase prices, leading to continued declines in retail quotations for ferrochrome. Meanwhile, chrome ore futures offers softened, and smelting costs edged down, reducing support. Overall, trading activity in the ferrochrome market was sluggish, with limited actual transactions. The market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term, awaiting guidance from the new round of mainstream steel mill tender prices, with many holding bearish expectations.

On the raw material side, on November 17, 2025, the spot quotation for 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin Port was 53.5-54 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% South African raw ore, it was 48-49 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was 55-55.5 yuan/mtu; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was 55.5-56.5 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore, it was 57-59 yuan/mtu; and for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate, it was 63.5-64.5 yuan/mtu, down 0.25-1 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. In the futures market, offers for 40-42% South African concentrate fell to $274-276/mt.

At the beginning of the week, the chrome ore market was mediocre, with buyers and sellers still deadlocked. With ample raw material inventory, ferrochrome producers were in no hurry to purchase, mostly waiting for further price declines. Coupled with softening overseas market quotations, market pessimism spread, with expectations that the new round of steel mill tender prices might be driven down. However, sellers' spot chrome ore prices were near cost lines, with some already incurring losses, and their willingness to cut prices further was limited, leading to minimal market changes. In the futures market, the new offer price for South African concentrate from the overseas main mine fell by $7 to $275/mt. Domestic traders, holding bearish expectations, showed mediocre purchase willingness, making transactions difficult. Support from high planned ferrochrome production for chrome ore is gradually fading. The chrome ore market is expected to remain weak in the short term, awaiting guidance from the new round of steel mill tenders and overseas market quotations.